By BRIAN A. HOWEY
INDIANAPOLIS - There sat the serene House Speaker B. Patrick Bauer at his desk before the Statehouse press corps last Thursday and a Mitch Daniels bobble head doll. Bauer tapped it and Gov. Daniels’ plaster head bobbed up and down. “The governor is here with us and he agrees with me almost all the time,” the Speaker said as laughter filled his small office.
Of course, nothing could be further from the truth. Daniels and Bauer are worlds apart when it comes to how Indiana should be governed.
It feeds into the question of who the most powerful person in the Statehouse really is: a constitutionally weak governor seeking to radically rebuild a backwater state, or a powerful Speaker who is the bulwark for an anemic status quo, and who is motivated only by the maintenance of his own elevated political station?
When the deal-making reaches true intensity next week, will Bauer, the stasist defender whose caucus has made a mockery of just about every progressive piece of legislation that has passed through its doors, win this battle and lose the war? For Daniels, who entered this session off a landslide victory and leaves it with near 70 percent approval, his legacy is at stake. His governorship will not be deemed successful unless he can achieve profound government and education restructuring.
The backdrop to this is the potential General Motors and Chrysler bankruptcies and liquidations, coupled with a steel industry collapse, whose production is the lowest since the Great Depression. There have also been two township trustee criminal convictions this past week.
Here are the key issues that must be determined by April 29:
The budget: This is the governor’s top priority and at this writing, he is looking at a stinker. It is loaded with Obama stimulus funds he warned Bauer and Senate Appropriations Chairman Luke Kenley not to use. Daniels wants a two-year budget that is truly balanced. Bauer wants a one-year budget given the economic crisis, but the governor has no stomach for dealing with it again next year.
State revenue forecasters predict Indiana will take in $690 million less over the next two years than last December’s estimate. That doesn’t include a Chrysler liquidation that could spread to suppliers, creating a belt of Indiana counties in Northern Indiana facing jobless rates between 15 and 20 percent. A question with no answer is what happens to those numbers with an automotive/steel collapse? Kenley’s foundation is an 8 percent budget cut plus using $2 billion in federal stimulus funds to increase education spending between 1 and 2 percent.
Unemployment Insurance: This is the issue in HB1379 most likely to create the need for a special session. A House Democrat plan put forth on Monday would saddle Hoosier employers with $1 billion to fix the shortfall, compared to the $328 million in the Senate bill, which would include some cuts to beneficiaries. This is one of those issues that got kicked down the road and now a solution must be found in crisis.
Asked how many Hoosier companies are teetering financially, Indiana Manufacturers Association President Pat Kiely answered, “There is no data available to determine how many Indiana manufacturers are on the brink, but we do know anyone related to autos, RVs and housing are in the worst positions.”
A look at Department of Workforce Development notices as of Wednesday reveal 5,527 jobs that will be lost between now and the end of June, which wouldn’t include 6,000 Chrysler jobs and related suppliers. “Passing a $1 billion tax increase as called for in the House Democrat conference committee report is clearly insane and for bargaining purposes,” Kiely said.
“Probably the right question to ask is how many employees will have to lose their jobs in every sector to pay for the tax? Employees will be impacted more than companies in most cases, which makes this tactic hard to understand and even harder to understand is why we continue to play political games with a subject that needs repairs and not rhetoric with one week left,” Kiely noted.
There is persistent speculation that Bauer is angling to blow up the UI bill and let the Obama administration deal with it. How does the idea of Washington running this sensitive fund strike you?
Education: I once viewed this as a key 11th-hour bargaining chip. Daniels might get his balanced budget or some Kernan-Shepard reforms in exchange for more education funding. Our sense at this writing is that the jobs trust issue is overshadowing the issue of increased education funding. Democrats are concerned that poorer school districts are being shorted by the Republican budget.
Kernan-Shepard: The miscalculation may have been Bauer and Senate Minority Leader Vi Simpson’s decision to not choose even a few of the 27 Kernan-Shepard recommendations for passage. The complete dismissal of all Kernan-Shepard reforms sets up a dramatic political showdown for House races in 2010 that will almost certainly be played out in places like Kokomo, Indianapolis, Terre Haute, Rising Sun, Marion and Pendleton, some of which will be experiencing titanic job losses. Imagine a campaign featuring a direct contrast between Daniels and Bauer. It’s coming.
My prediction? Just as we saw during the severe recession of 1982, a special session is probably likely sometime this year once we finally understand the full implications of the auto and steel crisis.
The columnist is publisher of www.howeypolitics.com.
